新闻动态

办 公:

手 机:

主页 > 成功案例 > 文章详情

今年玉米价格走势被判断为乐观走势 但将玉米库存将限制玉米价格

发布时间:2018-11-05 14:34
我国玉米市场经历了前两年惨淡的低迷行情,今年可谓是惊喜连连。除了一改之前断崖式下跌的价格走势,自春节前后的价格低点震荡上涨至现阶段的年内高点,农民种植效益也出现了大幅提升。以黑龙江为例,国庆节前后新粮开秤价较去年上涨近100元/吨,据行情宝了解,今年玉米种植地租较去年下降近15%,再加之单产恢复、玉米种植补贴,初步推算黑龙江地区玉米种植收益可以达到3500-4000元/公顷。而去年当地玉米种植效益严重缩水,每公顷收益竟达到负值。
 
China's corn market has experienced a doldrums in the last two years, and this year is a pleasant surprise. In addition to the cliff-like price trend before the change, the price fluctuation before and after the Spring Festival has risen to the current year's high, and farmers'planting efficiency has also increased significantly. Taking Heilongjiang as an example, the price of new grain has increased by nearly 100 yuan/ton before and after the National Day. According to Shibao, the rent of maize planting this year has decreased by nearly 15% compared with last year. With unit yield recovery and maize planting subsidies, it is preliminarily estimated that the income of maize planting in Heilongjiang can reach 3500-4000 yuan/ha. Last year, local corn production efficiency shrank seriously, and the hectare yield was negative.
 
 
 
玉米种植,玉米市场,玉米价格
 
Corn planting, corn market, corn price
 
 
 
十月上旬至今,当地用粮企业开始陆续下调新粮收购价,尽管个别企业在此期间在出现阶段性上调收购价情况,但相比节前偏高的开称价,大部分企业仍有20-100元/吨的下调幅度。
 
Since the beginning of October, local grain enterprises have begun to reduce the purchase price of new grain. Although individual enterprises have raised the purchase price at this stage, most of them still have a 20-100 yuan/ton reduction compared with the pre-festival opening price.
 
 
 
与此同时,进入11月之后,东北地区新粮收割基本完成,玉米市场陆续进入晒干上市阶段,市场交易高峰期也将接踵而来,势必将打压国内玉米价格,目前市场普遍预期市场价格可能会下跌50-100元/吨。这样一来,农户今年玉米的种植效益是否如上文所说的那么高还有待商榷。不过市场也有人认为,今年10月并未如往年预期那般出现玉米大幅下跌现象,部分地区出现小幅调整,整体粮价依然处于一个比较稳定的阶段,因此对后市还是持有较为乐观的看法。
 
At the same time, after November, the new grain harvest in Northeast China has been basically completed, the corn market has entered the stage of drying and listing, and the peak period of market transactions will follow, which will surely depress the domestic corn price. At present, the market generally expects that the market price may fall by 50-100 yuan/ton. As a result, it is still open to question whether the efficiency of corn planting this year is as high as mentioned above. However, some people in the market also believe that in October this year, corn did not fall as much as expected in previous years, some areas have been slightly adjusted, the overall grain price is still in a relatively stable stage, so they still hold a more optimistic view of the future market.
 
 
 
尽管国内玉米市场缺少了临储收购政策“保价护航”,决策层却在其他政策方面给予市场有利支撑。不论是镰刀湾减产还是乙醇燃料的应用,以及各项补贴政策相继出台,均说明这一点。
 
Although the domestic maize market lacks the "guaranteed escort" of the purchase policy, the decision-makers give the market favorable support in other policy aspects. This is illustrated by the reduction of production in Fujian Bay, the application of ethanol fuel and the introduction of various subsidies.
 
 
 
一、减产竟可能导致玉米跌价?
 
First, reduction of production may lead to corn price drop?
 
 
 
从上文调研结果可以看出,去年玉米种植效益十分低迷,以至于今年不少农户都放弃种植玉米。与此同时,“镰刀湾”减产政策文件实施以来,2016年玉米种植面积即出现了近3000万亩的调减。2017年的玉米种植面积将继续调减1000万亩以上。
 
From the above research results, we can see that the efficiency of maize planting was very low last year, so that many farmers gave up planting maize this year. At the same time, since the implementation of the "sickle bay" policy document, the maize planting area has been reduced by nearly 30 million mu in 2016. The corn planting area in 2017 will continue to be reduced by more than 10 million mu.
 
 
 
其实早在各调研团队实地考察前,国内外很多机构已经对今年玉米减产做出初步预估,更有机构预测:今年玉米将减产5000万吨!然而,当各团队近期进入各产区实地考察发现:尽管各地均出现不同程度的玉米“弃种”情况,但与前期预估数值却有很大出处。
 
In fact, many organizations at home and abroad have made preliminary predictions about the reduction of maize production this year before the field visits of the research teams. More organizations have predicted that the maize production will be reduced by 50 million tons this year. However, when the teams recently visited the production areas, it was found that although there were different degrees of "abandonment" of Maize in all regions, they were still in contact with the situation of "abandonment" of maize. The pre estimate value is very significant.
 
 
 
从新闻了解到:今年各主产区生产形势大致情况如下;东北地区面积调减超2000万亩,但单产明显好于去年,预计单产增加7%左右;华北地区面积调减1000万亩,但单产也同样趋增5%左右;西北地区面积、单产均变化不大,与上年看持平;华中地区面积、单产均微降。综合来看,预计今年国内玉米产量较去年减产幅度不超过1000万吨。
 
We learned from the news that the production situation of the main production areas this year is as follows: the area of Northeast China has been reduced by more than 20 million mu, but the yield per unit area is obviously better than last year, with an expected increase of about 7%; the area of North China has been reduced by 10 million mu, but the yield per unit area has also increased by about 5%; the area and yield of Northwest China have not changed much, which is holding up with the previous year. The area and unit yield of central China decreased slightly. On the whole, corn production in this year is expected to be less than 10 million tons a year from last year.
 
 
 
而随着市场调研的结束,今年玉米生产的真实数据也将公布,若真出现如上文所推算出来的不足1000万吨的结果,那么前期市场因减产炒作而出现的利多支撑将逐渐消化,叠加新粮供应持续增加的影响,玉米价格或出现阶段性下滑。
 
With the end of market research, the real data of maize production this year will also be released. If there is a result of less than 10 million tons, as predicted above, the prophase market will gradually digest the profit support caused by the speculation of reducing production, superimposing the impact of the continuous increase of new grain supply, or the price of Maize may appear in stages. Slippery.
 
 
 
二、库存仍是压在我国玉米头上的大山
 
Two, inventory is still on the top of China's corn head.
 
 
 
由于临储政策调整改革,近两年玉米价格的持续低迷,农户种植玉米没了“保护价”,势必会出现大幅调整。而执行8年之久的临储收购政策之所以取消,主要归结于国储库偏高的政策粮库存。10月27日本年度玉米临储拍卖完美收官,那么现阶段国家临储玉米库存还剩多少呢?
 
Due to the adjustment and reform of storage policy, the price of maize has been depressed in the past two years, and farmers have no "protective price" for planting maize, which will inevitably lead to a substantial adjustment. The abolition of the eight-year-old policy of temporary storage and acquisition is mainly attributed to the high policy of grain stocks in the state treasury. October 27, Japan's annual corn storage auction ended perfectly, so how much is left of the national corn storage at this stage?
 
 
 
本年度临储玉米拍卖总成交量约为5740万吨。粗略计算,目前临储玉米库存减少至1.78亿吨。我们从10月中旬以来的几次收尾拍卖成交情况来看,其成交率及成交价格均出现不同程度上调。主要由于临储玉米相比新季玉米仍有价格优势,加上企业10月份的备货需求,用粮企业会抓紧机会抢拍临储玉米补充库存。
 
The total volume of corn auction in this year is about 57 million 400 thousand tons. Rough calculation, the current storage of corn stocks reduced to 1.78 million tons. From several closing auctions since mid-October, we can see that both the turnover rate and the transaction price have been adjusted to varying degrees. Mainly because of the price advantage of the corn in front of storage compared with the new season corn, coupled with the enterprise's stock demand in October, grain enterprises will seize the opportunity to snap up the corn in front of storage to replenish the stock.
 
 
 
尽管在政策及减产炒作预期支撑下,今年玉米价格走势被判断为乐观走势。不过将近1.8亿吨的玉米库存依旧是压在玉米市场头上的一座大山,将限制玉米价格上涨高度。
 
Despite the expectation of policy and production speculation, this year's corn price trend is judged to be an optimistic trend. However, nearly 180 million tons of corn stocks remain a mountain on the top of the corn market, which will limit the rise in corn prices.
 
 
 
三、9月玉米进口同比大增12倍只是虚张声势?
 
Three. In September, corn imports increased by 12 times over the past year, just a bluff?
 
 
 
最新海关数据显示:9月我国玉米进口量同比大增逾12倍至24.99万吨,主要是因进口美国玉米数量同比大增239.69%。不过,截止目前1-9月我国玉米进口量仅为227.62万吨,同比减少23.59%。
 
According to the latest customs data, China's maize imports increased more than 12 times to 249,900 tons in September compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the 239.69% increase in the imports of American maize from the same period last year. However, by the end of 1-9 months, China's corn imports were only 2 million 276 thousand and 200 tons, down 23.59% from the same period last year.
 
 
 
尽管玉米进口数量同比依旧是减少的,但从今年单月进口数据来看,6月开始玉米进口量均出现不同程度提升。一方面是由于今年玉米价格出现阶段性上涨行情;另一方面则是国内玉米市场的短暂供应缺口导致企业采购国外粮源。不过,由于我国对玉米进口存在配额限制,进口配额量仅为国内产量的4%不到,因此对国内玉米的实际供需形成不了太大影响。
 
Although the number of corn imports is still decreasing year on year, from this year's monthly import data, corn imports have increased in varying degrees since June. On the one hand, the price of maize has risen periodically this year; on the other hand, the short supply gap in the domestic maize market has led to enterprises purchasing foreign grain sources. However, because of the quota restriction on Maize import in China, the import quota is only less than 4% of the domestic output, so the actual supply and demand of Maize in China can not be greatly affected.
 

关于我们| 新闻动态| 成功案例| 收费标准| 服务范围| 联系我们|

Copyright © 2002-2017 DEDECMS. 上海腾达商务调查公司 版权所有